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“民企不愿做石油”不怪垄断?

2013/9/7    作者:

香港新闻日报通讯社:近来,因为频繁曝光的中石油窝案,媒体对中国石油行业的议论又多了起来。其中央视著名评论员杨禹发表在央视网的文章备受关注,该文称“石油业不是谁都干得了的”、“民间资本不愿意进来(石油领域)是出于理性而非行政垄断”。这样的说法符合事实吗?…
香港新闻日报通讯社:近来,因为频繁曝光的中石油窝案,媒体对中国石油行业的议论又多了起来。其中央视著名评论员杨禹发表在央视网的文章备受关注,该文称“石油业不是谁都干得了的”、“民间资本不愿意进来(石油领域)是出于理性而非行政垄断”。这样的说法符合事实吗?…

首先,“民企不愿做石油”就值得商榷

上游勘探开采:曾让民营企业蜂拥而至


石油开采是石油产业链中门槛最高的一环

石油产业有比较长的链条,从上游的勘探开采,到中游的汽柴油等成品油炼制,到下游的批发零售,再到进出口贸易、产品定价等。杨禹认为“很多人期待的‘敞开大门、投资者蜂拥而入’的场面,只是一种美好的误会。”那么不妨从门槛最高的勘探开采出发,看看到底有没有投资者想进去。

1997年,勘探开采的准入限制曾短暂松动。中石油为降低勘探和开采成本,将旗下11个“低品位油田”区块对外招标。此举的依据是1986年通过的《矿产资源法》,该法允许持有石油、天然气许可证的企业划一部分采区承包给其他单位,实行产品分成、合作开发。注册地在香港的中汇石油公司,抓住了机会。根据中汇石油与中石油吉林油田的协议,合同期内,由中汇石油负责投资开采吉林油田的两个对外合作区块。

勘探开发新油田的风险,由民企独自承担,合作区块上的所有设施均归中石油所有。就风险极大的采油而言,这一条件极为苛刻。中石油采取的策略是,打井阶段收入二八分成,油田占两成,民企占八成。待所采原油足以收回成本时,采取四六分成甚至五五分成。

即便如此,巨大的利润依然让民营企业蜂拥而至。据不完全统计,中石油在上世纪90年代拿出来合作开发的区块在30个以上,吉林油田2005年的一份材料显示,当时聚集在吉林油田周围的民营石油公司有41家,原油开采量达到100万吨,占到吉林油田总产量的20%。…

中游成品油炼制:不让炼也要偷偷炼

早年,民营炼油厂炼油是违反规定的。1999年国务院部署了对钢铁、石化、建材等行业实施总量调控、关闭“五小”、淘汰落后、压缩过剩生产能力的工作,其中就包括关闭地方小炼油厂。当时一些地方的炼油厂,由于地方政府保护等因素而侥幸存活下来。民营炼油厂一般都不敢明目张胆地挂“炼油厂”的牌子,大部分是打着“沥青厂”、“焦化厂”的旗号偷偷地炼油。

截至2010年底,全国共有在营地方民营炼厂193家,原油一次加工能力21377万吨/年,占当年全国炼油能力34.6%。由于背靠中原油田和胜利油田,山东省的炼油工业一直很发达。根据山东省炼化行业协会提供的数据,截至2011年底,山东省21家大型民营炼化企业年综合炼油能力为6500万吨,2011年完成产量3150万吨,逾半产能过剩。

下游零售:民企一度成为主渠道

1992年邓小平南方讲话之后,石油行业曾向民营企业开过一道口子。在进入门槛最低的零售环节,民企一度成了主渠道。1998年,全国有3340家民营石油批发企业,民企占了成品油零售市场份额的85%,1999年,民营加油站数量占比接近九成,加油量占到六成。这段光景,被民营油企称为“黄金年代”。

现在民企不干了,不是“不愿”是“不能”


2013中国企业500强,中石化、中石油占据头两名

杨禹的文章,花大篇幅讲了什么叫垄断,告诉大家“不妨多了解和思考垄断是怎么回事”、“石油业是自然垄断不是行政垄断”。不错,垄断确实分为两大类。

第一大类:自发形成的垄断,又分4种:1、天赋的垄断(如澳洲的铁矿石、中东的石油);2,专利的垄断(如可口可乐);3,市场大赢家的垄断(如微软、淘宝);4,成本特性的垄断(如自来水、电网)。

第二大类:强制形成的垄断。就是运用非经济的强制力量,清除竞争对手,保持对市场的排他性独占。如欺行霸市、强买强卖,如政府管制牌照数量,或由立法来阻止竞争而产生的行政性垄断。

表面上看,正如杨禹所言,中国的石油行业,挺符合自然垄断中的成本性垄断,因为其投资成本确实大,回收周期也确实长。但如前所述,光是这一点,似乎并没有阻碍民营资本进入。但是,在中国的石油行业,行政强制力造成的垄断却是无处不在的,让我们看看在各个环节,民营企业是如何受到政策打压的。…

上游勘探开采:民企开发权被剥夺

1997年,勘探开采这一环节的准入限制曾短暂松动。但好光景转瞬即逝,2000年,《矿产资源法》重新修订,删去了油田可以外包开采、合作开发的内容。自此,民企在勘探开采领域无法再获得增量的区块,老本吃完后,就基本无路可走了。

这样理论上,民企要勘探开采石油,只能去国外运作。进入海外市场,风险大成本高,但即便如此也有愿意干的民企。2011年赢利约9.8亿人民币的新疆广汇能源,无疑是中国民营油企中的成功者。长期以来,“绕不开的中石油”是中国民营油企的共同宿命,广汇能源却能够绕开中石油,在哈萨克斯坦拿下两个油气区块,并建设了跨国天然气通道。广汇能源是幸运儿,民营企业在国外开采油气资源,运回国内加工,广汇能源是第一家,迄今也是唯一一家。除了自治区政府的鼎力支持,中央各部委也罕见地一路绿灯。

即使这份特殊幸运降临,广汇能源也躲得过初一,躲不过十五。要想把这两个项目所产原油运回国,唯一的办法是花钱请中石油旗下的中国联合石油公司帮忙进口,再按后者定价卖给中石油炼厂。

中游成品油炼制:油进不来,也出不去

1999年,国务院发布了《关于清理整顿小炼油厂和规范原油成品油流通秩序的意见》(“38号文件”),卡死了民营炼油厂的石油进口权。2002年起,出于入世的承诺,国家开始在一定程度上开放原油的进口。然而,38号文件规定,民企在进油的过程中,必须持有中石油和中石化同意购买的书面文件,海关才批准办理通关。原油供应脱节,导致即便是最好的时候,山东地方炼油企业的开工率也不过70%,这是前述山东民营炼油企业产能闲置最主要的原因。

向央企靠拢,是唯一求生手段。目前,中国化工集团在山东省已整体收购、重组或控股济南石化集团、济南长城炼油厂、正和集团、华星石化、昌邑石化、青岛安邦石化等六家地炼企业。效益下降的地炼向央企靠拢,只是希望借助央企的身份争取更多的原油供应。

另外,根据2003年铁道部发布的《铁运函150号令》,没有书面文件,铁路部门不能安排相对应的运力。出于这些限制,有的民营油企即便拿到炼油配额,也选择把配额转让给两大石油公司,或者直接作废。

下游零售:成品油销售、批发被钳制


民营加油站自1999年之后开始骤减

1992年后的六年时间,被称为民营加油站的“黄金年代”,民营加油站数量占比接近九成。这一切,在1999年戛然而止。到2012年,民营加油站数量仅占全国加油站总数的46%,实际销售量可能不到总数的1/3。且这些所谓的“民营加油站”,里面纯民营的越来越少,大量的是背靠石化双雄、由石化双雄参股、控股。

1998年3月,国务院宣布重组石油工业,变分业经营为混业经营。重组后,中石油、中石化分别获得北方12省、南方19省的零售经营权,对下游产业链的垄断自此形成。1999年5月,38号文下发,成为两大集团垄断下游的政策依据。该文件规定,国内各炼油厂生产的成品油,要全部交由两大石油集团的批发企业经营,其他企业、单位不得批发经营。自此,民企退出了成品油批发领域。两大石油集团掌握了批发权,后果是一旦“油荒”,民营加油站就拿不到油。

2001年9月, 《关于进一步整顿和规范成品油市场秩序的意见》下发,赋予两大集团以零售专营权,各地区新建的加油站,统一由中石油、中石化全资或控股建设,进一步强化了两大集团的零售垄断权。自此,成品油零售市场呈现出新建加油站全面国有化、旧有民营加油站举步维艰频频打包出售的局面。…

民企在上、中、下游被全面干涉,行政垄断当然难脱关系

石油行业的上游领域由于风险大成本高,的确容易形成自然垄断。全世界在上游领域活跃的企业,也的确就是像埃克森美孚这样数得过来的几家巨无霸。但是这个自然垄断的地位是由竞争形成的,还是由行政力量达成的,也是有区别的。

由竞争形成自然垄断地位的埃克森美孚是世界上最大的民营石油天然气企业,2010年该公司总资产回报率为19.86%,同期,中石油的总资产回报率是12.59% ;销售、一般性和管理费用,中石油占总收入比的10%左右,而埃克森美孚只占4%;2010年中石油的税收占总收入比15.2%,而后者多达23.3%。这个对比可以看到,在竞争性市场经营的埃克森美孚,在税负压力大于中石油的情况下,资产回报率还要高于中石油,而且管理费用低于中石油两倍还多。

在石油行业的中下游领域,中小企业遍地开花是常态。如果出现国企一家独大,总不能归咎于“风险大成本高、理性的民间资本并不愿意进来”吧?

结语

垄断并非都是万恶的,有时候它还是实力的体现。但中国的石油产业环境,受到强制垄断的影响更大,忽略这一点谈其自身的成本性垄断,是避重就轻。

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